Probability and dice‑math breakdowns — simple math that helps players make smarter decisions.
A practical guide to making smarter in‑game decisions
Wargaming is full of cinematic moments — heroic charges, desperate last‑stand volleys, clutch rolls that flip the entire battle. But beneath all that drama sits something far less glamorous and far more powerful: probability.
Understanding a bit of dice‑math doesn’t turn you into a machine; it simply gives you clearer expectations so your decisions are grounded in reality rather than hope. Think of it as sharpening your tactical instincts.
🎯 Why Probability Matters in Wargames
Better risk assessment: Know when a charge is worth it and when it’s a coin flip.
Smarter resource use: Save rerolls, buffs, or command points for moments where they matter most.
Clearer expectations: Avoid “feel‑bad” moments by knowing what outcomes are actually likely.
Improved long‑term strategy: Make decisions based on averages rather than wishful thinking.
🎲 The Basics: Understanding Dice Odds
Most wargames use standard six‑sided dice (d6). Here are the core probabilities you’ll use constantly:
Roll NeededChance of SuccessTactical Meaning2+83.3%Very reliable action3+66.7%Solid but not guaranteed4+50%Pure coin flip5+33.3%Unreliable without buffs6+16.7%Desperation territory
🔢 Expected Hits: The Most Useful Shortcut
If you roll n dice and each succeeds on probability p, then:
Expected successes=n⋅p
Examples:
10 attacks hitting on 4+ → 10⋅0.5=5 expected hits
20 shots hitting on 5+ → 20⋅0.333=6.66 expected hits
6 elite attacks hitting on 2+ → 6⋅0.833=5 expected hits
This doesn’t predict the exact roll — but it tells you what’s normal.
🎯 Rerolls: When They’re Actually Worth It
Rerolls are powerful, but only if used wisely. The value depends on the original chance of success.
Rerolling 1s: Small but efficient boost (common in many systems).
Full rerolls: Huge value when your base chance is low.
Buff stacking: Combining rerolls with modifiers can dramatically shift outcomes.
Example: A 4+ hit (50%) with a full reroll becomes:
1−(0.5⋅0.5)=75% chance to hit
That’s a massive jump.
💥 Damage Probability: The Hidden Layer
Many games use multi‑step resolution (hit → wound → save). Multiply the probabilities to get the final expected result.
Example:
Hit on 3+ (66.7%)
Wound on 4+ (50%)
Opponent saves on 5+ (33.3% chance to save → 66.7% chance to fail)
Final chance of dealing damage:
0.667⋅0.5⋅0.667≈0.222
So each attack has a 22.2% chance of causing damage. Ten attacks? Expect about 2.2 wounds.
This is the kind of insight that separates instinct from informed play.
🧠 Practical Tactical Applications
Know when to commit: If your charge only succeeds 28% of the time, maybe don’t hinge your plan on it.
Focus fire intelligently: If a unit statistically survives your attack, send more firepower.
Use buffs where they matter: A +1 to hit is far more valuable on units rolling lots of dice.
Avoid “trap” actions: Some moves feel good but have terrible odds.
🧮 Quick Mental Shortcuts for the Table
Half the dice hit on 4+
Two‑thirds hit on 3+
One‑sixth hit on 6+
Full rerolls add ~50% more hits
Rerolling 1s adds ~17% more hits
These aren’t perfect, but they’re fast and accurate enough for real‑time decisions.
🏁 Final Thoughts
Probability isn’t about removing the excitement of randomness — it’s about understanding the battlefield more clearly. When you know the math behind your dice, you stop relying on luck and start playing with intention.